This week, Pedro Pascal experienced a significant boost in the 2025 Emmy predictions, climbing from fourth to third place in the fiercely contested Best Drama Actor category for his role as Joel in HBO’s The Last of Us. According to the influential forecasting platform Gold Derby, this development places Pascal in a much stronger position heading into the heart of awards season. The change follows notable shifts across several acting categories, highlighting a major shake-up in the Emmy race as the acclaimed post-apocalyptic drama’s ensemble continues to garner critical momentum.
Pascal’s renewed momentum is particularly striking, given the harsh turn his character faced early in The Last of Us season two, especially after a dramatic encounter involving a golf club. Despite this narrative setback, or perhaps because of it, industry experts and fans alike are rallying behind Pedro Pascal, whose performance has resonated with viewers. If predictions hold true, this would mark his fourth overall career Emmy nomination, building upon his three previous nods from last year, which included recognition for The Last of Us, Saturday Night Live, and Patagonia. Pascal’s consistency in awards circuits demonstrates the impact of his nuanced and layered performances, especially as Joel, a role that has cemented his status as a leading dramatic actor in television.
The Last of Us has not only elevated Pedro Pascal’s Emmy standing but also propelled other series talent into prominence. Isabela Merced, a new addition to the cast, leaped from ninth to eighth place in the Best Drama Supporting Actress category. Merced’s portrayal of Dina, a resourceful and spirited survivor navigating the zombie apocalypse, has positioned her as a fresh contender seeking her first Emmy nomination. Alongside Pascal, these cast advancements underline a dynamic shift as more actors from the show earn recognition in a field traditionally dominated by long-standing names.
Meanwhile, Bella Ramsey, who leads The Last of Us as the determined Ellie, maintains a strong second place in the Best Drama Actress category, trailing only behind esteemed performer Kathy Bates from Matlock. The competition between Ramsey and Bates carries historical significance; should Bates secure a win at age 77, she will become the oldest recipient of the Best Drama Actress honor, while a Ramsey victory would set a record for the youngest winner at 21. The stakes in this category not only shape current Emmy narratives but may also influence the trajectory of award standards for years to come.
The competitive Emmy landscape surrounding Pedro Pascal and The Last of Us is informed by a legacy of previous critical recognition. In 2023, the show’s debut season amassed 24 Emmy nominations, capturing eight awards in categories including guest performances, main title design, picture editing, prosthetic makeup, sound editing, sound mixing, and visual effects. Importantly, both Pascal and Ramsey earned lead acting nominations, reflecting the show’s ability to balance emotional drama with technical excellence. This precedent reinforces expectations for continued awards success, even as questions arise among pundits about category placements for the current season. In particular, industry watchers debate whether Pascal, due to his character’s evolving screen time, might be moved from a lead to a supporting slot, a decision that could shift the dynamic within the actor’s Emmy campaign.
Beyond individual performances, the broader Emmy season has seen substantial movement, with The Last of Us and its stars at the center of several notable predictions. Gold Derby, regarded for its combination of expert insights and mass user predictions encompassing over 2,300 participants, recently revised its category odds. In the Best Drama Series race, The Last of Us secured a strong position, second only to Severance, and ahead of The Pitt, The White Lotus, and Slow Horses. The presence of The Last of Us among such formidable company underscores the continued relevance and appeal of the series, which has captivated audiences and critics through its blend of action, emotional storytelling, and high production values.
Forecasts for other top acting categories reinforce the show’s influence. In Best Drama Actor, Pedro Pascal has moved up alongside frontrunners Adam Scott (Severance) and Noah Wyle (The Pitt), with Gary Oldman and Sterling K. Brown rounding out the leaderboard. Each actor’s prospects reflect complex, meticulously crafted performances, yet Pascal’s surge demonstrates both the enduring popularity of The Last of Us and the industry’s recognition of his ability to convey vulnerability, grief, and resilience within an unforgiving fictional world.
On the supporting side, Kaitlyn Dever, another member of The Last of Us cast, joined the slate of predicted nominees in Best Drama Supporting Actress. Isabela Merced’s steady progress toward potential nomination is notable amidst competition from acclaimed actresses such as Carrie Coon, Parker Posey, and Allison Janney. The diversity and talent within this group signal a renewed focus on ensemble-driven drama, where nuanced character work receives as much attention as headline performances like those from Pedro Pascal.
The Emmy outlook for lead actresses in drama, meanwhile, is particularly compelling. Bella Ramsey continues to inspire discussion as she remains within striking distance of a win, following her impactful depiction of Ellie’s struggle and growth throughout The Last of Us. Her rivalry with Kathy Bates is closely watched; the implications of a win for either performer extend beyond individual recognition, suggesting a broader reconsideration of age, experience, and breakthrough talent in the television acting arena.
Seasoned analysts and first-time viewers alike remain intrigued by the broader narrative shifts within this year’s Emmy campaign. Other notable developments include series like The Perfect Couple transitioning from limited/movie to drama, and strategic category changes for actors such as Ari Graynor, who moved from supporting to lead for Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story. These tactical adjustments echo larger conversations about fairness and adaptability within awards voting, affecting the odds for returning favorites and newcomers, including Pedro Pascal as he vies for his next Emmy recognition.
The context of this year’s predictions is further complicated by the weight of recent Emmy success for The Last of Us, which elevated both main and supporting cast members in previous seasons. The show’s eight wins last season set a high benchmark, with victories stretching from acting accolades, such as Nick Offerman and Storm Reid’s recognized guest roles, to technical categories that support the program’s immersive, atmospheric storytelling. Pedro Pascal’s rise in the Best Drama Actor race is therefore not occurring in isolation but against the backdrop of consistent critical achievement, high viewership retention, and an ever-expanding fanbase eager for the show’s continued recognition.
Pundits and Emmy strategists have begun dissecting the possible effects of category realignment for top performers. With Pascal’s screen time reduced in newer episodes, speculation has grown around whether a supporting category placement might enhance his chances, given the perennial strength of the lead category and the strategic advantages of competing in a different field. This question is echoed in predictions and social media threads as audiences and critics weigh the merits of each approach. Regardless, the actor’s performance remains a focal point, repeatedly cited as both an emotional core for the audience and a standout among this season’s contenders.
The method behind current Emmy odds, particularly those influencing Pedro Pascal’s standing, blends quantifiable analysis with the swelling momentum of public sentiment. Gold Derby’s polling system draws from editors, entertainment journalists, and a vast user base, synthesizing large volumes of data into dynamic rankings. This system not only tracks shifting expert consensus but also reflects surges in fan enthusiasm, which, as historically noted, can occasionally sway the perception of momentum in key categories. For The Last of Us, Pascal’s ascent signals an intersection between narrative significance and personal performance, enhancing his viability as a serious contender for the Emmy title.
The drama series race itself has never been more contested, with predicted nominees that include Severance, The Last of Us, The Pitt, The White Lotus, Slow Horses, The Diplomat, Andor, and Squid Game. Each of these programs brings unique themes, visual styles, and acting strengths. The Last of Us effectively leverages its survivalist plot and character-driven drama, set apart by the performances of stars like Pedro Pascal, whose ability to internalize trauma and hope amid devastation has drawn both empathy and acclaim from a wide spectrum of viewers.
Analysis of supporting actress prospects reveals a dynamic list, with cast members from The White Lotus, The Diplomat, and Severance listed as frontrunners, but with Isabela Merced making notable strides as a new voice in The Last of Us cast. The show’s continued ability to highlight talent across a range of roles bodes well for its overall representation at the Emmys, while also illustrating the interconnected nature of ensemble-driven storytelling that elevates individual achievements—particularly those of Pedro Pascal and his costars.
There remain potential spoilers in all categories, with acclaimed series like Paradise, The Handmaid’s Tale, House of the Dragon, and Industry waiting in the wings should frontrunners falter. For Pedro Pascal, maintaining momentum will likely depend on a combination of ongoing critical recognition, strategic category placement, and the show’s sustained delivery of emotionally compelling material in the remaining episodes. The competition is intense, and every movement on the leaderboard reflects complex calculations of narrative significance, acting range, past accolades, and industry buzz.
The ripple effects of these Emmy predictions are already influencing the entertainment industry, shaping press coverage and driving discussions among showrunners, networks, and promotional teams. For the actors themselves, including Pedro Pascal, rising Emmy odds provide both validation and a higher level of scrutiny. Pascal’s current third-place standing underscores the expectation that his portrayal of Joel will remain central in awards conversations throughout the season, regardless of any further narrative developments within The Last of Us.
The forecast for Best Drama Actress is no less dramatic, with Kathy Bates and Bella Ramsey’s head-to-head contest reflecting larger generational currents within television. Bates’s storied career contrasts with Ramsey’s emerging stardom, further highlighting how this year’s Emmys may rewrite standards for achievement and recognition across age groups. The possibility of Pedro Pascal joining this turning point with another Emmy nomination further underscores the sense of transition evident throughout the field.
Looking at technical and guest acting categories, The Last of Us continues to enjoy strong prospects for nominations and possible wins, reinforcing the program’s ability to marry high-quality visual design with compelling character arcs and intense storylines. In this context, Pedro Pascal’s ever-rising odds are both a symptom and a driver of The Last of Us maintaining its place as an Emmy powerhouse, keeping industry watchers, voters, and fans on alert as the campaign progresses.
Historical trends suggest that multiple nominations for a single drama series often reflect broader cultural resonance as well as critical success. With Pedro Pascal and others from The Last of Us positioned for potential recognition, the show could once again dominate the conversation at the 2025 Emmy Awards. The intricate interplay between the series’ bold storytelling, production values, and cast dynamics ensures that attention will remain high leading up to the final nominations announcement.
For Pedro Pascal, continued high performance in polls and expert forecasts will hinge on both the direction The Last of Us takes and his ability to sustain the emotional weight of Joel’s journey. As viewers await upcoming episodes and voters consider ballot decisions, the actor’s ascent in the Emmy race serves not only as a testament to his current season’s work but also as a symbol of his growing stature in the television landscape. Pascal’s path forward will depend on holding audience and critical interest, navigating the complexities of awards politics, and adapting to a field bursting with new talent and veteran favorites alike.
The outcome of this season’s Emmy race has far-reaching implications for the television industry. A win or further recognition for Pedro Pascal would reinforce evolving standards for dramatic performance, reward risk-taking narratives, and celebrate the craft of contemporary genre fiction on prestige television. The ongoing advancements of Pascal, Ramsey, and Merced in their respective races also invite reflection on how new voices and bold performances are changing the shape of Emmy honors, shaping the field for future stars and veterans alike.
The evolving landscape ensures that every movement—whether it’s Pascal’s rise, Merced’s fresh momentum, or Ramsey’s record-setting potential—serves as both a reflection and a catalyst of trends across television drama. As the Emmy campaign accelerates toward its final stages, all eyes remain on Pedro Pascal, whose journey exemplifies the forces shaping the awards, the industry, and the next generation of television storytelling.
With voting deadlines approaching and campaigns intensifying, the cascading changes among contenders promise a turbulent yet exhilarating close to the Emmy season. The fortunes of Pedro Pascal and The Last of Us are a microcosm of the larger competition: driven by talent, buoyed by fan fervor, scrutinized by industry experts, and watched by millions. In this nuanced, high-stakes environment, every shift in prediction rankings matters, signaling not just potential winners, but emerging standards of excellence that will influence the industry long after the awards ceremony ends.
As The Last of Us and Pedro Pascal approach the final stretch of the Emmy race, momentum, critical support, and audience engagement remain pivotal. The impact of Pascal’s ascent will likely be felt throughout the awards season and could redefine expectations for dramatic performances across the medium. Whether or not he ultimately secures another nomination or the coveted Emmy trophy, his current trajectory speaks volumes about the changing face of television and the power of a single, deeply felt performance to energize an entire awards season.
